Saturday, 21 July 2018

Sensex, Nifty charts (Jul 20, 2018): bull rallies pause after upward breakouts

FIIs were net sellers of equity on three out of five trading days last week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 12.1 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on three out of five trading daysTheir total net buying was worth Rs 13 Billion, as per provisional figures.

The GST Council has given a monsoon bonanza to consumers by reducing tax rates on items like washing machines, refrigerators, vacuum cleaners, water coolers, water heaters, small TVs, electric irons, paints, varnish, handicraft items.

Trade issues and higher US interest rate could create outward capital flow pressure for India, but risks this year are more moderate compared with 2013, according to S&P Global Ratings. 

BSE Sensex index chart pattern



The daily bar chart pattern of Sensex touched a new intra-day high of 36748 on Wed. Jul 18, but closed much lower - forming a 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close). The index traded within a 490 points range during the week, and lost 46 points on a weekly closing basis.

Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones, but looking overbought and not showing much upward momentum. Next week is F&O expiry week, so trading activity may remain muted.

All three EMAs are rising, and the index is trading above them in a bull market. However, a pullback towards the recently-breached down trend line remains a possibility.

The following comment was made in last week's post: "The broader market - particularly mid-cap and small-cap stocks - have not participated in the rally so far."

Actually, they have done much worse. (Thanks to reader Abhishek for pointing this out.) Take a look at almost identical BSE Midcap and BSE Smallcap chart patterns below:

BSE Midcap index & BSE Smallcap index chart patterns 



Both Midcap and Smallcap indices have touched lower tops and lower bottoms since their Jan '18 peaks, and have dropped into bear markets. All three EMAs are falling, and the indices are trading below them. 

The 'death cross'es (marked by light blue ovals of 50 day EMAs crossing below 200 day EMAs on both charts) have technically confirmed bear markets.

Daily technical indicators are in bearish zones, and not showing much upward momentum - but showing positive divergences by not falling lower with the indices. Some consolidation or technical bounces are possibilities.

NSE Nifty index chart pattern



The weekly bar chart pattern of Nifty failed to make much progress after breaching the down trend line a week ago. The weekly bar formed a 'doji' candlestick that indicates indecision among bulls and bears. The index lost 9 points on a weekly closing basis.

Both weekly EMAs are rising, and the index is trading above them in a bull market. However, higher volumes on recent down-weeks are hinting at a pullback towards the down trend line.

Weekly technical indicators are in bullish zones but not showing much upward momentum. RSI and Slow stochastic are looking overbought. ROC has started correcting.

Nifty's TTM P/E is 27.36 - which is well above its long-term average in overbought territory. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) has dropped towards its overbought zone, and can limit near-term index upside.

Bottomline? Bulls are taking a breather after triggering breakouts above down trend lines on Sensex and Nifty chartsSome more consolidation or correction will enable both indices to move higher. Bear markets in Midcap and Smallcap indices are worrying signs.

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Friday, 20 July 2018

Indices closed down .03% to .09%.....

Indices closed almost flat, not bad for tweet storm this morning.

S&P 500 @ 2801.93, low 2800.01, high 2809.70

RSI @ 60.20

CMF @ 0.071

Internals were :

Down volume led by 1.17 to 1 in NYSE & 1.39 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 1.12 to 1 in NYSE & 1.11 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 62 in NYSE & 92 in Nasdaq

VIX Down .08% @ 12.86

Oil @ $70.46

Gold  @ $1231.10

Canadian $ @ .6840

Stocks which were UP 1% or more included IQ
YY MOMO BILI WB EAF BAC DNKN GG
KGC MSFT TSM AEM MSFT....

Here is my portfolio weighting :

IQ            18.80%

HUYA      17.20%

BIDU       16.30%

NVDA      15.80%

BZUN      14.30%

SQ               8.90%

NEW           8.70%   

Next post by 6 PM on Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem  

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