Race To The Top

“The international community should stop chasing the chimera of a binding treaty to limit CO2 emissions. Instead, it should pursue an approach that encourages countries to engage in a “race to the top” in low-carbon energy solutions.” —Timothy E. Wirth and Thomas A. Daschle in A Blueprint to End Paralysis Over Global Action on Climate , writing in Yale University's environment360. They reject the approach taken by political leaders to mankind's most serious existential threat: Climate Change (Global Warming). It simply has not worked. But, we are in the midst of the largest crisis to ever face our species. If we do not fix climate change, it will be the end of all of us. The end of humanity. They point to a way out of the crisis: We think the time has come for the international community to alter its collective climate strategy, cease the search for the impossible all-encompassing top-down agreement — described unattractively as "burden sharing" — and instead encourage an approach that builds on national self-interest and spurs a "race to the top" in low-carbon energy solutions. This would change the psychology of the climate change issue from one of burden to opportunity, and change the likely outcome from one of hand-wringing about failure to excitement about tangible action to build a better world. This is the lens through which to view the prospects for a new climate agreement at international talks in Paris in 2015. A new agreement should recognize that a simple one-formula-fits-all framework is not feasible: We don't know how to allocate emissions among nations, the global economy makes this impossible anyway, and the early differentiation between developed and developing economies is no longer valid. Instead, a new start is needed, based in part on what has been called "pledge and review": Nations will pledge concrete steps to reduce their carbon emissions and periodically submit their progress to the international community for review. Rather than strive for an elusive, binding global treaty, the idea is to encourage countries to make strong national commitments in their own economic self-interest and then roll those up in the Paris agreement, which would not take the form of a treaty and thus would not need to be ratified. Countries would be motivated to take these actions in response to competition, both economic and political; international peer pressure; and the aspirations of their own people. The overarching goal is to spur national action to bend the carbon curve downward in a meaningful and measurable fashion, giving greater certainty to the private sector to innovate and invest in low-carbon technologies. This is the world's best option for accelerating progress and averting catastrophic climate change. While the higher initial capital cost of clean energy technologies remains a hurdle, over time the lack of fuel costs for renewable energy (such as sunlight or wind) is the offsetting cost variable. The cost savings from energy efficiency similarly produce a predictable and attractive rate of return. Indeed, one recent survey found that investments in low-carbon solutions generate a positive return of 33 percent. On the other side of the equation, it has long been recognized that the price of fossil fuels does not reflect their many external costs, including air pollution, political and security risks, and damage from climate change. China's recent history exemplifies both the historic tension between development and climate and a pathway to reconcile them. Coal fueled the country's remarkable economic growth but also produced unhealthy air and intolerable environmental damage. In response, China's leaders are engineering a serious shift toward wind and solar energy, greater energy efficiency, and development of shale gas, based on political and economic self-interest. This reversal may lead to greater alignment on climate policy among China, the United States, and the European Union and also influence other developing countries. Through these examples and many others, a new path is emerging toward accelerated progress on climate change, based on a theme of opportunity as the shift to renewables and increased efficiency produces new businesses, more jobs, cleaner air and water, and better public health. The political reality is that countries increasingly will see that this path is in their own self-interest. They should be encouraged to compete for advantage in a race to the top, rather than bicker over emissions limits.

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