Sunday 15 May 2016

Goldman cuts 2017 oil price forecasts, raises short term view

Goldman Sachs says “the oil market has gone from nearing storage saturation to being in deficit much earlier than we expected and we are pulling forward our price forecast, with second quarter/second half of 2016 WTI now $45/bbl and $50/bbl.”

Goldman says forecasts a more gradual decline in inventories in second half than previously and a return into surplus in first quarter 2017, with low-cost production continuing to grow in the new oil order 
Gold
Goldman Sachs says lowering its 2017 forecast from $57.5/bbl to $52.5/bbl, with a first quarter 2017 decline back to $45/bbl and a recovery to $60/bbl by fourth quarter 2017.

Goldman says expects past price induced production declines will keep the market in deficit in second half 2016; global market imbalance will shift back into surplus in first half 2017.

Goldman Sachs says “net, our 2016 oil demand growth forecast is now 1.4 mb/d, up from 1.2 mb/d previously.”

Goldman Sachs says “net, this leaves us expecting a sharp decline in second quarter output.”

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