Who Is Poised To Lose $30 Trillion?

It should be obvious who's going to lose $30 Trillion: Big Oil & Gas. Giles Parkinson, writing in Renew Economy : The global fossil fuel industry faces a loss of $28 trillion in revenues over the next two decades if the world takes action to address climate change, cleans up pollution and moves to decarbonize the global energy system. The assessment, made by leading European brokerage Kepler Cheuvreux, underlines what's at stake for the fossil fuel industry, including factors such as a push for cleaner fuels and concerted efforts to reduce emissions, and helps explain the significant pushback from the oil and coal industries against such policies. The Kepler Cheuvreux report, penned by a team led by Paris-based analyst Mark Lewis, a former head of Deutsche Bank's carbon and energy team, says the oil industry has the most to lose, with a potential loss of $19.3 trillion in revenues in the period 2015-2035. The coal industry stands to lose $4.9 trillion, while the gas industry could lose $4 trillion. The most at-risk projects are the high-cost, high-carbon sources -- particularly deepwater drilling, oil sands and shale-oil plays -- which rely on high prices for oil. Kepler Cheuvreux arrives at its primary conclusions by comparing the forecasts included in the International Energy Agency's "New Policies Scenario," which is effectively a business-as-usual scenario, and what would be needed to meet the 450 Scenario, which is based on the parts-per-million level seen as a benchmark for capping global warming to a maximum 2°C. Continue reading the report....

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