EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook

U.S. total crude oil production, which averaged 7.4 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2013, is expected to average 8.5 million bbl/d in 2014 and 9.3 million bbl/d in 2015. The 2015 forecast represents the highest annual average level of oil production since 1972. Natural gas plant liquids production increases from an average of 2.6 million bbl/d in 2013 to 3.0 million bbl/d in 2015. The growth in domestic production has contributed to a significant decline in petroleum imports. The share of total U.S. liquid fuels consumption met by net imports fell from 60% in 2005 to an average of 33% in 2013. EIA expects the net import share to decline to 22% in 2015, which would be the lowest level since 1970. Natural gas working inventories on June 27 totaled 1.93 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), 0.67 Tcf (26%) below the level at the same time a year ago and 0.79 Tcf (29%) below the previous five-year average (2009-13). Projected natural gas working inventories reach 3.43 Tcf at the end of October, 0.38 Tcf below the level at the same time last year. EIA expects that the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which averaged $3.73 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2013, will average $4.77/MMBtu in 2014 and $4.50/MMBtu in 2015.

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