Sunday 3 April 2016

Tape getting overheated.....

In the last 27 days of trading S&P 500 has moved UP 181.78 points or 9.61%......

RSI @ 70.36....in overbought territory

VIX @ 13.10....also signalling overbought

CMF @ 0.289...first major deceleration in money flow

Oil @ $36.79......corrected quite a bit and may have found support

Gold $1223.50.....also pulled back to support area.....

On Friday, TAPE was strong while Oil was down, this is a breach of current linkage and may have started delink, means oil can be up and indices may be down....

SO....what is my interpretation ......

Whenever above scenario develops, it is better to be cautious.....

Cautious means book profit wherever you may have.....

Sell weak stocks as they may fall further, more than strong ones....

Wait till market has completed its corrective phase.....

Buy when previous support is not breached......

I know.....you may think this analysis may be premature but RSI has been my most reliable indicator.

I buy aggressively or maintain my position when RSI @ 30 area and keep selling near 70 area......

TAPE needs rest and may buy time until next catalysts......

YES...it is a strong bull market, but RSI cannot be overlooked.....

Nothing wrong in being conservative and booking profit, as they say, nobody got poor booking profit....

Good luck with your own analysis and comfort level.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

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