Sunday, 26 June 2016

Will 2020 hold in S&P 500 ?

So....here we are post Brexit, world indices were severely jolted crushing key technical levels, uptrend has changed into downtrend, technical damage / breakdown is done. Here are the current picture of 3 major indices :

Dow down 3.64% in one day 

S&P 500 down 3.82% in one day

Nasdaq down 4.13% in one day

Above factoring low of the day .......

When was the last time you recall Nasdaq being down 202+ point in a single day, in one day Nasdaq went below 50 & 200 DMA.....

S&P 500 and Dow are still above 200 DMA......

S&P 500 support is around 2020 area and also 200 DMA.......the question of the day IS......will it hold....

There is a good chance that all indices may close / go below 200 DMA....then recovery starts, it could all happen on Monday by close......

Many economists are trying to come up with winners and losers in Brexit......

UK is the-biggest loser as its currency Pound is under severe pressure which currently stands @ 1.3695 after going to 1.32 to US$...this is 52 wk low and high is 1.58.....

London real estate may be the next pressure point to the downside......

Europe may be the next casualty as evidence by Euro which currently stands @ 1.1095 to US$, low on Friday , high is 1.17 as 52 wk tally.....

US, Canada, Asia may not be impacted too much, just an adjustment to new reality of Brexit and its related breakup format.

Gold jumped to $1322.40 @ close, but was as high as $1362.60, but gave up those gains.......

VIX jumped to 25.76, high was 26.24........

Rational and analytical mind tells me that it was all a "major overreaction"

Friday being weekly option expiry, gave all the incentive to push everything lower to the max.....

We may recoup part of loss in a hurry on Monday......

Hopefully my optimistic scenario may workout as Monday unfolds.

It is important to know, which sectors is in dire condition.....it is financial stocks......

As long as you can stay away from those, damage can be contained in a very irrational environment.

Good luck with your own analysis and comfort level.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

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