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As per derivatives data, Nifty stands still in the range that was seen before the election which was 11500 – 12100. Now presently, we have good writing at 11700 – 11600 which now makes the 11800 very strong support for Index. Secondly Nifty also has its 10 Days SMA at the level of 11835. With that, the market has sustained the 11800 marks during this week and all five days. This indicates the push for upside is placed around 11750 – 11800 in the short term and that needs to be sustained by the bulls.
RSI is moving sideways which suggest the strength in the market is a bit weak and there needs to be enough improvement in breadth coupled with volumes that can take out 11950 – 12000 decisively.
For June Series, 1st weekly Expiry shows a higher concentration of strikes of 11800 – 12200. We expect this to be an initial range for the coming week, and, the market may see some momentum building up. It is important, for now, market to sustain levels of 11800 to see upside move to 12150 – 12200.
The week saw expiry with higher rollover which clearly indicates there is a trend that may be established in June series. The rollover for Nifty at 71% which is above its last 6 month Average while bank Nifty at 83%, also above 6 month average of 72.51%, does indicate that there is some confidence in the market in the coming month. That may be attributed to multiple factors. The decline in crude, Strength in rupee momentarily, decisive mandate, elections and so on. The important one, for now, post-event, is a decline in volatility.
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