Are we in a parabolic rise stage in stock market?

TAPE has been on a wild rise since 1st week of October 2019, in roughly 6 weeks most Indices have outperformed in the dreaded month of October.....

Many are interpreting this rise as unusual and rare.....not so.....

IF we go back to September 2018......Indices have barely moved....

YES....we are @ new all time highs in every major Index except IWM......

BUT gains in last 12 to 13 months is very muted.......

Here is what we gained in since last September 2018:

DOW.........2.26%

Nasdaq..... 5.00%

S&P 500...6.11%

Extremely muted and normal run of the mill gains

History pegs 8.00% as average gains for market

That is not all.....IF we take famous all telling Financials....picture is really pathetic and it is :

Since January of 2018 XLF has gained only 1.46% in 23 months.........

What I am trying to highlight, do NOT be afraid of few days of new all time highs.....IWM is still hoping to do it in coming week..It is still 11.77 points away or .69%......

Once we have made series of new highs in IWM.....then we will be overbought.....NOT YET!

When we make new all time highs, Internals are much more robust than what we have observed this time....means too many skeptics and too many positioned the wrong way in this TAPE.

It is safe to conclude that many traders / Investors are not invested as much as they should.....underexposed @ new all time highs means.....much farther to go.....

And yes RSI is not in neverland either, they are :

DOW           75.70

S&P 500      74.11

Nasdaq        71.12

XLF             69.84

SOX            67.06

IWM           64.13

SO....IF there is an event driven pullback.....time to buy strength.....pullback may not last more than 1.5 days......

Good luck with your own analysis & comfort level.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Posted in: Mixed